National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform
Mission and Strategic Approach
Note that this is an evolving document; it should be treated as the most recent draft.
Last updated August 2011
Mission: The National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) platform will support state-of-the-art approaches to develop and provide comprehensive regional and local information about the evolving climate and will facilitate its use to support decision making and adaptation planning.
Community Approach: NCPP is a participatory community enterprise where climate information users, infrastructure developers, and scientists come together in collaborative problem solving. NCPP recognizes the abundance of existing, distributed capabilities that need to be brought together in an open-source and open-innovation environment to address the complex challenges of climate change.
Collaboration and partnership: NCPP will be a collaborative effort of federal, state, and local agencies, universities, private organizations and citizens, interested in knowledge-based, consistent, documented, and vetted climate information for the purposes of assessments of impacts, assessments of risk, and adaptation. NCPP will focus on integration of information-technology services, synthesis of information and the extension of the capabilities of existing organizations. NCPP will include experts and representatives of participating organizations and groups within its governing structure. Initially this effort will engage three key user communities: NOAA regional networks, the National Climate Assessment and the DOI.
Core activities: NCPP will engage in several core activities in support of scientifically credible climate projections capabilities and products, including:
Engage key user communities and develop deliberate strategies for connecting climate information to their activities related to climate. Support translation of the information for various decision and adaptation planning contexts and to inform the regulatory and legal processes regarding climate change.
Engage the climate research community to build up from existing efforts to deliver climate projections at regional and local scales as part of a coordinated national capability.
Develop information and software infrastructure for the integration of existing and planned downscaled data sets, including the development of web-based services
Coordinate a broad-based effort for evaluating downscaling methods for US applications
Climate Information services: NCPP will provide climate information as a flexible service that will accommodate new information as the state of the science evolves. NCPP will enable access to quantitative, dynamically and statistically downscaled climate and hydrologic projections at the appropriate time and space scales to feed into user models and decision support tools. In addition the platform will provide access to projected changes in commonly used climatic indices that measure the frequency and intensity of extremes and the cumulative effect of persistent weather events, e.g, growing degree days, drought and heat stress indices. NCPP will provide guidance on appropriate practices in the use of climate information. This guidance will include quantitative and descriptive evaluations of downscaling techniques, models, and uncertainty. NCPP will also support the development of science-based narratives and scenarios to support adaptation planning.
NCPP will make available tools and capabilities to provide the interfaces to climate change data in formats that are usable by application specialists. NCPP will promote standardization of approaches and tools. NCPP will also provide translational information, including development of an analysis environment that supports quality assessment, access and use of state-of-the-science downscaled information.
Implementation Approach: NCPP will work closely with existing organizations to identify capabilities and work flows to inform the development of infrastructure and services to support collaborative problem solving and community governance. NCPP will draw on examples of successful climate change problem solving and participate in a selection and implementation of projects that are perceived to be broadly representative and extensible to community capabilities.